VanEck Head of Digital Property Analysis Matthew Sigel confirmed hypothesis that the corporate’s Solana spot ETF proposal bets on Donald Trump profitable the US presidency.
The deadline for VanEck’s software is about for March 2025, which might put it properly past the aftermath of the US Presidential elections in November.
Sigel merely responded with a easy:
“Can affirm.”
The analysts mentioned approval odds for every ETF are “close to zero” if a Democrat victory leaves Joe Biden in workplace and “higher … however not assured” if Trump wins the election. Trump would probably appoint a brand new SEC chair to exchange the company’s present chair, Gary Gensler.
Surveillance sharing
One other concern seen as a hurdle to potential Solana ETF is the shortage of a futures market on CME, which consultants consider was a key think about spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs gaining the regulatory inexperienced gentle.
Grayscale notably argued in its case in opposition to the SEC that the surveillance sharing agreements in place for the CME Bitcoin futures had been replicable for its proposed spot ETF and ample to detect and stop fraudulent actions.
The agency claimed that the SEC failed to offer an affordable clarification for treating spot Bitcoin ETFs in a different way from futures ETFs by way of surveillance-sharing agreements.
The case basically revolved round whether or not the SEC’s demand for a surveillance sharing settlement particularly for a spot Bitcoin ETF was justified and whether or not the SEC utilized its requirements persistently throughout several types of Bitcoin-related ETFs.
For the reason that SEC has now authorized spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum, Sigel believes VanEck won’t have to exhibit a CME futures market round Solana to acquire its ETF. He beforehand acknowledged:
“Surveillance sharing agreements with spot crypto exchanges can obviate want for CME futures.”
Bloomberg agrees SSA is sufficient
Bloomberg analysts agreed that an SSA “must be sufficient” however concluded VanEck’s method will “solely work if there’s new management on the SEC and/or a literal act of Congress.”
They famous that previous ETF filings, notably BlackRock’s June 2023 spot Bitcoin ETF software, included surveillance-sharing agreements (SSAs) with Coinbase, main different companies to introduce related clauses. Nevertheless, the analysts added that the agreements finally proved pointless.
The analysts additionally mentioned that the SEC’s ongoing securities lawsuits in opposition to a number of exchanges, together with Coinbase and Kraken, additionally complicate SSAs between exchanges and ETF issuers.
